“There has never been a roster that’s been perfectly applauded,” Mexico manager Javier Aguirre warned, “and this one surely won’t be the exception.”
The grizzled coach is undoubtedly correct but he certainly heightened speculation surrounding the 26 players he would select with a bizarre, protracted process which rumbled on for almost a month. After dropping his first 12 names back in April, Aguirre belatedly unveiled the remaining 14 at the end of May to finally offer some clarity to Mexico’s preparations.
El Tri was the last co-host to unveil its squad. Mauricio Pochettino’s thunder was stolen with a leaked list for the U.S. men’s national team while injury has complicated Jesse Marsch’s Canadian contingent, but the identity of the 78 players operating on home soil has (almost entirely) been revealed.
With the personnel involved now known, what better time to fire up Opta’s whirring supercomputer to get an insight into how these rosters will perform in front of partisan crowds.
Getting Through the Group Stage
| Nation | Chances of Reaching R32 | Chances of Topping the Group |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 87.61% | 47.80% |
| USMNT | 76.84% | 32.77% |
| Canada | 79.26% | 31.12% |
Every World Cup is undoubtedly improved by the home nation advancing beyond the first round. Given the vastly expanded nature of this 48-team tournament, the odds of getting through the group have never been greater.
Even with these favorable fortunes, Mexico has still been given a swollen 87.61% chance of making it to the round of 32. Aguirre’s side has been treated to a relatively modest group, taking on South Korea (ranked 25th in the world by FIFA), Czechia (41st) and South Africa (60th) exclusively on home turf. The Qatar World Cup four years ago was the first time since 1978 that Mexico had failed to advance beyond the group stage—it appears unlikely that dark day will be repeated.
Canada also bowed out of the tournament in 2022 at the earliest opportunity and has never won a World Cup point, let alone a game. Hopes are high that this generational iteration of the Canucks can make history—and those ambitions might not be so fanciful. Marsch’s side find themself up against playoff winners Bosnia and Herzegovina, a Qatar outfit which rarely wins away from its own peninsula and a wily Swiss side.
Intriguingly, Canada is given a better chance of sneaking into the second round than the USMNT—although both are expected to do so. There is even a devilish scenario where the U.S. tops its group while Canada comes third which could potentially set up a round-of-32 tie between the two co-hosts.
World Cup Co-Hosts’ Groups
| Co-Host | Group Stage Opponents |
|---|---|
| Mexico | South Africa, South Korea, Czechia |
| USMNT | Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye |
| Canada | Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland |
Which Co-Host Will Go Furthest at 2026 World Cup?
| Stage | Mexico | USMNT | Canada |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round of 16 | 51.96% | 41.75% | 42.68% |
| Quarterfinal | 24.22% | 19.35% | 18.39% |
| Semifinal | 8.43% | 8.19% | 5.58% |
| Final | 2.96% | 3.34% | 1.79% |
| Winners | 0.99% | 1.21% | 0.52% |
“We’re all focused on the end goal,” Aguirre declared in the buildup to his roster announcement, “which is for Mexico to have our best-ever World Cup.” Reaching the semifinals would represent unchartered territory for El Tri, who last made it to the quarterfinals in the previous two editions of the competition which it staged.
Mexico has the best chance of any co-host to reach the round of 16, quarterfinal or semifinal. However, the balance of probability swings in the USMNT’s favor once it gets to the final. Pochettino has openly targeted winning the whole thing, inspiring widespread ridicule. Opta have put a number on that optimism, giving the Stars and Stripes a non-negligible 3.34% chance of reaching the final and 1.21% odds of lifting the trophy on July 19.
“I don’t want to be that guy that says the USA is never going to win the World Cup, then they actually win it,” Norway’s Manchester City striker Erling Haaland laughed last summer. “So there’s a 1% chance they’re going to do it.” He wasn’t far off.
