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The Latest Breaking News from Simon Jackman

Australia’s two-party system is in long-term decline: what does it mean for how we view elections?

See how the major party vote has changed in your electorate

The Guardian - AU

Grattan on Friday: Dutton walks more softly on China, with election in mind

When Peter Dutton was asked this week whether a Coalition government would continue to foster trade relations with China, he declared unequivocally that “the relationship with China will be much stronger than it is under the Albanese government”.

The Conversation

Five insights from the referendum: Liberals win the battle but lose the war

Saturday’s referendum vote reinforces sense that contemporary Liberal party has decoupled from its blue-ribbon metropolitan heartland

The Guardian - AU

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The 'yes' campaign is generating the most media and social media content. Yet, it continues to trail in the polls

With almost a third of votes cast already in postal and pre-poll voting for the Voice to Parliament referendum, the “yes” campaign is ramping up its advertising and media efforts. Both campaigns are in the home straight ahead of Saturday’s crucial ballot.

The Conversation

How might the First Nations Voice to Parliament referendum affect Australia's international reputation?

In late September, American rap legend MC Hammer made a spectacular intervention into Australia’s upcoming referendum to establish a Voice to Parliament for First Nations people. In a tweet, he urged Australians to “repair the breach”.

The Conversation

The 'yes' Voice campaign is far outspending 'no' in online advertising, but is the message getting through?

With early voting set to open next week for the Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum, this is a critical time for campaigners to win over voters.

The Conversation

The 'no' campaign is dominating the messaging on the Voice referendum on TikTok – here's why

In the first week after the prime minister revealed October 14 as the Voice to Parliament referendum date, the “yes” and “no” campaigns recast their messages, resulting in unprecedented news coverage and public engagement with the debate.

The Conversation

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View from The Hill: Australia's bid for Julian Assange's freedom presents formidable problems for Joe Biden

In his relatively brief time as prime minister, Anthony Albanese has had very extensive contact with US President Joe Biden. According to the prime minister’s office, Albanese has had four formal meetings with him, plus two Quad meetings, and several other less formal discussions. They’ll rub shoulders again at the…

The Conversation

Voice referendum: is the 'yes' or 'no' camp winning on social media, advertising spend and in the polls?

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed the Voice to Parliament referendum will take place on Saturday October 14.

The Conversation

How much can polling really tell us about support for the voice to parliament?

Polls show declining support for referendum but variations in methods make it difficult to pinpoint by how much

The Guardian - AU

Below the Line: How might our new, more diverse parliament change Australia and the Asia-Pacific? – podcast

Right from the outset, it is clear Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s agenda is very different to his predecessor Scott Morrison’s – from emphasising his commitment to fighting climate change to foreign leaders in Tokyo, to displaying the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags at his Parliament House press conferences.

The Conversation

Below the Line: Has Australia's political landscape changed forever? – podcast

Politics can be slow-moving, until all of a sudden it isn’t. As political scientist Simon Jackman says in today’s episode of Below the Line, “politics is very non-linear. You get these steady, secular trends in voter sentiment, and then you’ll have that breakthrough election where that will convert into seats”.

The Conversation

Analysis-Australian women unleash new political force on climate, integrity

Professional women and voters concerned about climate change unleashed a third force in Australia's election, taking a swath of seats that ended nine years of conservative rule even as votes for the winning Labor Party fell.

Reuters

Undecided voters, independents and marginal seats mean pollsters can still get election outcome wrong

The more independents and minor parties that end up in contention for lower house seats, the less useful traditional polling will be at predicting winners, writes Casey Briggs.

ABC News

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The Conversation

Below the Line: What might happen to the major party that loses the election? – podcast

An existential moment for the Liberal party? Another female leader for Labor? In this episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our expert panel talk us through what might happen to the major parties if they do not win government.

The Conversation

Below the Line: What issues are politicians ignoring this election? – podcast

Channel Nine’s leaders’ debate on Sunday night may have been a “shouty, unedifying spectacle”, but Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese will do it all again on Wednesday evening on Channel Seven.

The Conversation

Below the Line: Will different cultural groups favour one side of politics this federal election? – podcast

Is there any such thing as the so-called “ethnic vote” in a country as multicultural as Australia? Do different cultural groups favour one side of politics over another? For instance, in Victoria’s most marginal seat of Chisholm, will the Hong Kong-born Liberal MP Gladys Liu be advantaged by the Chinese…

Reuters

Analysis-Solomon Islands pact with China roils Australian PM's election campaign

For the first time in decades, the actions of a foreign state have taken centre stage in an Australian election campaign, analysts said, as China's security pact with the Solomon Islands reverberates into neighbour Australia's domestic politics.

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The Conversation

Below the Line: former independent Cathy McGowan hits back at John Howard’s ‘anti-Liberal groupies’ jibe – podcast

Former independent federal MP Cathy McGowan has hit back at John Howard’s description of independent candidates as “anti-Liberal groupies”.

ABC News

Morrison and Albanese are facing off in the election. This is what the polls have to say — and what to look for next

There is one thing more certain than pollies kissing babies on the campaign trail: You're going to see a lot of opinion polling. We are making reading them easier for you.

The Guardian - AU

Rising US isolationism means Australia must become more resilient and autonomous, thinktank warns

United States Studies Centre finds Americans are not convinced the Indo-Pacific should be a priority region for the Biden administration

People

Jacinta Nampijinpa Price

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