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The Latest Breaking News from Oxford Economics

Latin America Becomes Key Driver of New Oil Supply as 2026 Surplus Looms, Report Finds

New offshore projects in Brazil and Guyana shift global supply dynamics as output growth outpaces expected demand

Latin Times

Trump's Next Tariff Moves Could Make Or Break The US Economy In 2026

Tariffs aren't exactly top of mind for most Americans during the Christmas holidays, but as 2026 approaches, a few trade decisions from President Donald Trump could end up steering everything from the U.S. economy to your portfolio.

Benzinga

The most likely solution to the U.S. debt crisis is severe austerity triggered by a fiscal calamity, former White House economic adviser says

“Eventually, in the unforeseeable future, austerity may be the most likely of the six possible outcomes.”

Fortune

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'The kids aren't alright,' warns top economist, as unemployed, pessimistic Gen Z living with parents blow a $12 billion hole in consumption

"Young workers are more vulnerable to economic downturns, and a weak labor market can have a lasting negative impact on wage growth and earning potential," economist Grace Zwemmer writes.

Fortune

While Establishment Politicians Squabbled Over TikTok, John McEntee Built a New Model for Influence

According to Oxford Economics, TikTok contributed $24.2 billion to U.S. GDP in 2023, supporting over 224,000 jobs. For small businesses and content creators—constituencies Republicans claim to champion—the platform has become essential infrastructure.

International Business Times

It’s getting harder to separate the stock market from the economy. That means the Fed and Congress have more incentive to help Wall Street

A $1 increase in stock wealth leads to a $0.05 marginal propensity to consume, up from less than $0.02 in 2010, according to Oxford Economics.

Fortune

Consumers Feel Like It's 2008 Again In DC As Shutdown Hits Wallets

A prolonged federal government shutdown is hitting Washington D.C.’s economy hard, with consumer spending now falling at rates not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, raising fears of deeper economic disruptions if the deadlock continues.

Benzinga

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How long can the Russian economy continue to fund the frontline?

The Russian economy is balancing on the edge of recession, yet the war could go on for years. Its financing appears to have no immediate major obstacles, according to experts.

Euronews

A Rare Holiday Spending Boom Is Coming—But Only For The Wealthy

This year's holiday season may deliver the strongest sales growth in four years, but it won't be a broad recovery—wealthy households are expected to drive nearly all of the gains.

Benzinga

America is ‘flirting with recession’ if tech investment slows, according to new modeling—but bubble risk is still smaller than dotcom era

Oxford Economics warns U.S. growth could stall if tech investment cools, with global GDP also at risk if AI enthusiasm shows signs of waning.

Fortune

What bubble? By this measure, the AI boom still isn’t at dotcom bust levels

Another key difference between now and the earlier boom-bust era is that the Federal Reserve is lowering rates instead of raising them.

Fortune

The Nations And Firms Threatened By Trump's Pharma Tariffs

Donald Trump has shocked the global drug industry by announcing 100-percent tariffs on all branded, imported pharmaceutical products -- unless companies are building manufacturing plants in the United States.

International Business Times

If you can't work out why you're struggling when the economy is doing OK, it's because you're on the losing side

Oxford Economics finds that tariffs, labor dynamics, and policy shifts have hit younger and lower-income households hardest.

Fortune

The Fed May Cut Less Than You Think, And That Could Hit Stocks Hard: Oxford Economics

In an exclusive interview with Benzinga, John Canavan, lead analyst at Oxford Economics, struck a cautiously optimistic tone on the U.S. economy heading into 2026, but warned that the market's growing obsession with aggressive rate cuts and tech stock dominance may be ignoring some inconvenient truths.

Benzinga

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Euronews

German business sentiment drops: Is the ambitious fiscal plan at risk?

Germany’s business sentiment fell in September, raising doubts over recovery despite fiscal stimulus. Execution delays, labour shortages, and sector bottlenecks risk dragging on growth. Meanwhile, European stocks trail Wall Street as investor focus shifts.

Euronews

Why a decline in the UK's university sector is a threat to GDP

UK universities face a funding crisis that could cost the overall economy, but mostly impact a few already fragile regions, said Oxford Economics in a recent report.

Benzinga

Prices Are Rising, Jobs Are Gone — Can The Fed Stop A Stagflation Spiral?

An unsettling mix of rising consumer prices and surging layoffs is amplifying fears of stagflation right at the end of the third quarter, putting the Federal Reserve in an increasingly untenable position as it weighs a rate cut next week.

Euronews

European Central Bank leaves key deposit rate unchanged at 2%

As analysts widely expected, the European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate untouched on Thursday. This comes as the eurozone economy shows signs of resilience and inflation remains close to the ECB’s 2% target.

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Euronews

Political instability in France: How does it impact the economy and investments?

Economic risks are emerging in France while political instability looms, as the third government is in danger of falling in little over a year. Further attempts to tackle the country’s enormous debt could be choked until after the next presidential election in 2027.

Fortune

Social Security and Medicare cuts are coming because the bond market will eventually bring Congress to its knees, economist says

"A sharp upward repricing of the term premium for longer-dated bonds could force Congress back into a reform mindset."

Fortune

Even a 1% mortgage rate drop could be enough to 'unlock' the frozen housing market, Oxford Economics says

A lower rate should be “enough of an incentive” for some homeowners to sell their homes and trade up, opening up inventory.

Benzinga

Top 20% Drive America's Economy While 80% Grapple Inflation — Here's Why This Spells Trouble

America's consumer engine is leaning harder than ever on the rich, with new Moody's data showing the top 20% of earners now account for more than half of all spending while outlays by middle- and lower-income households flatline.

Fortune

China’s fertility crisis is so dire, rates are falling below ‘replacement levels,’ and GDP could slow by more than half in the next 30 years, study says

According to a new report from Oxford Economics, the potential output growth for China could fall from around 4% in the 2020s to less than 2% by the 2050s.

Euronews

Eurozone growth slows: Spain leads and Germany contracts

Eurozone GDP rose just 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, down from 0.6% in Q1, as Germany and Italy slipped into contraction. Spain led growth at 0.7%, while France surprised with 0.3% growth.

Al Jazeera

As Trump’s August 1 deadline looms, tariffs are here to stay, experts say

Trump’s protectionist moves likely to keep pushing countries to lessen their reliance on the US, analysts say.

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