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The Latest Breaking News from Capital Economics

What bubble? By this measure, the AI boom still isn’t at dotcom bust levels

Another key difference between now and the earlier boom-bust era is that the Federal Reserve is lowering rates instead of raising them.

Fortune

The U.S. economy is running even hotter than previously thought, and GDP growth could reach 4% in Q3

Stronger GDP also means the Federal Reserve will be under less pressure to lower rates aggressively.

Fortune

What to know about the H-1B visa Trump has targeted with $100,000 fees

At least 60% of the H-1B visas approved since 2012 have been for computer-related jobs, according to the Pew Research Center. But hospitals, banks, universities and a wide range of other employers can and do apply for H-1B visas.

Euronews

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What Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee means for employers and workers

The fee has stunned and confused people from the U.S. to India and beyond

The Independent UK

Independence Of Central Banks Tested By Trump Attacks On US Fed

For months, US President Donald Trump has been piling pressure on the Federal Reserve over delayed cuts to interest rates, casting the institution's independence into doubt.

International Business Times

You’re welcome, world: U.S. tariffs may cool inflation for the rest of the global economy

“We doubt that U.S. tariffs will significantly affect inflation in the rest of the world, but if anything, the effect could be mildly disinflationary.”

Fortune

Swiss Will Try To Negotiate Way Out Of Stiff US Tariffs

The Swiss government said Friday it would negotiate with the United States to try to avoid the tough 39-percent US tariff rate that would harm key industries.

International Business Times

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Chinese economy grows at a 5.2% annual pace despite trade war

China achieved GDP growth for the last quarter above the official 5% target, although strong exports to markets aside from the US masked weak domestic consumption.

Euronews

We're about to find out who's really paying for tariffs

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect companies will pass on 70% of tariff costs to consumers via higher prices.

Fortune

The TACO trade is backfiring on Wall Street as Trump seizes on stock market highs to charge ahead with tariffs

"Markets appear to believe that Trump will again back down. We are not so sure."

Fortune

The housing market is flashing warning signs about high mortgage rates and Gen Z and millennial first-time buyers, Capital Economics says

Don't expect mortgage rates to drop anytime soon, the London-based research firm says.

Fortune

Is your city a winner or loser in the return-to-office race? Capital Economics breaks it down

The London-based research firm also issued a forecast through 2029, finding three cities rising above the rest.

Fortune

Stocks sink after Trump announces steep tariffs Japan, Korea and 5 other countries

Trump also extended the pause on tariffs to Aug. 1.

Fortune

Wall Street was expecting a TACO Tuesday. But Dow futures fall 250 points after Trump says he will set tariffs as high as 70%

Trump said that about “10 or 12” tariff letters would go out Friday, with additional letters coming “over the next few days.”

Fortune

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Fortune

Falling home prices are raising the risk of a deeper correction as the housing market cracks under high mortgage rates

The latest Case-Shiller home price report showed a 0.3% monthly fall in the 20-city index in April, steeper than March's downwardly revised 0.2% dip.

Fortune

Israel’s attacks on Iran may keep Fed rate cuts on hold, just as inflation was looking better

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 6.9 basis points on Friday to $4.426, reversing a dip in the immediate aftermath of the attacks.

Al Jazeera

US consumer sentiment tumbles as trade war fears grow

Expectations of rising unemployment hit the highest level since 2009.

Fortune

The Ukraine mineral deal relies on 50-year-old Soviet-era maps and infrastructure that no longer exists, report says

Reports indicate that a mineral mining agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine could be signed this week.

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The Guardian - UK

Strong wage growth gives Bank of England interest rate dilemma

Quick cuts unlikely because persistently high pay rises will probably be deemed inflationary

Fortune

What does Trump really want from Canada and Mexico? It may come down to oil security and bringing both countries 'under the US's thumb'

"This means both a reliable, unimpeded flow of oil and natural resources from Canada and a safer Mexico. And that means both countries under the US’s thumb."

International Business Times

China Holds Out Hope Last-minute Deal Can Avert US Trade War

China's new tariffs on US imports like oil, coal and cars are relatively modest in scale, suggesting that Beijing is hoping for a last-minute deal but also giving them the option to inflict more pain if needed, analysts say.

International Business Times

What Would Trump Tariffs Mean For Key Trade Partner Mexico?

US President Donald Trump has threatened to slap a 25-percent tariff on Mexican goods on February 1, a move that analysts say would deal a heavy blow to Latin America's second-largest economy.

The Guardian - UK

FTSE 100 share index records biggest weekly loss in a year, as US shutdown fears hit markets – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

The Independent UK

Why it’s unfair to compare the current market movement to catastrophic Truss mini-Budget

ANALYSIS : Ignore the comparisons, writes Howard Mustoe – any suggestions that market concerns over Rachel Reeves’s Budget bear any similarity to the chaos that followed Liz Truss’s economic disaster are wide of the mark

International Business Times

Eurozone Economy Grows Faster Than Expected

The eurozone economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, official data showed Wednesday, thanks to Germany which defied expectations and dodged a recession.

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