President Donald Trump has seen a significant decline in support among independent voters during his second term, according to a new poll.
The decline has been particularly sharp among those who don't have a college degree, a voting bloc that proved crucial in his ascension to the White House.
The analysis, conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, examined 21 waves of surveys conducted between July 2024 and April 2026. It found that Trump's support among independents has fallen by 17 percentage points since before he took office.
However, levels among Republicans and Democrats has remained relatively stable. Republican support has hovered around 75%, while Democratic support has remained near 5%.
Around the time of the election, nearly half of non-college-educated independents viewed Trump favorably. By spring 2026, that figure had fallen to roughly one-quarter, according to the analysis.
Researchers found that the erosion in support extended across several demographic groups that favored to Trump during the campaign. Hispanic independents and younger voters, both important components of his electoral coalition in the past election, also reported increasingly negative views of the president over the course of his second term.
Favorability among Hispanic independents dropped from roughly 46% around Election Day to 25% or lower in recent polling. The findings come as broader approval ratings for the president remain under pressure.
An AP-NORC survey conducted in April found that only 33% of Americans approved of Trump's overall job performance, down from 38% the previous month. Just 30% approved of his handling of the economy, while approximately one-quarter approved of his management of cost-of-living issues.
Economic concerns appear to be a major factor driving independent voters away from the president. The AP-NORC analysis noted widespread dissatisfaction with inflation and household expenses, issues that have persisted despite Trump's campaign promises to lower costs.
Only about three in ten independents approved of his handling of the economy, and approval of his approach to cost-of-living concerns was even lower. Other AP-NORC surveys during Trump's second term have shown declining support among independents on issues that were previously viewed as strengths for the administration.
A February poll found that approval among independents for Trump's immigration policies had fallen sharply from the previous year, with many respondents saying the administration had gone too far in its enforcement efforts. The trend suggests that while Trump has largely maintained strong support among Republican voters, he has struggled to hold onto the independent voters who helped broaden his appeal during the 2024 election.
Analysts noted that independent voters often serve as a crucial swing bloc in congressional and midterm elections, making their views especially important as Republicans seek to defend their House and Senate majorities in 2026.
The AP-NORC findings align with other recent polling showing weakening support among independents. Surveys from multiple organizations have found declining approval ratings among non-aligned voters, particularly on economic issues, the federal budget and immigration.
