A central element of President Donald Trump’s emerging Iran deal is a step-by-step approach that would see the Strait of Hormuz reopened followed by Tehran getting economic rewards each time it meets US demands.
That sequencing, described to reporters by a senior US official on Friday, formalizes a cautious approach designed to prevent the White House from getting caught out as it tries to end its months-old conflict with Iran and eradicate its nuclear program for good. But it also means there will be many opportunities for the deal to fall apart.
Also read: US, Iran signal peace deal near as Tehran claims victory
Neither the US nor Iran has given a comprehensive picture of the agreement that Trump and other top officials have said could be signed as early as this weekend. But the details that have emerged so far suggest each side is proceeding with extreme caution, reluctant to make any real concessions before the other does.
And at its heart, the agreement wouldn’t meaningfully deal with Iran’s nuclear program. Instead, it would leave an issue that’s been central to Trump’s justification for the war to a future 60-day negotiating process.
“Any deal that kicks the can down the road on the most critical issues and is conditions-based would put the US and Iran exactly where they’ve been: a fragile ceasefire in name only that is routinely tested and prone to violence,” said Becca Wasser, defense lead for Bloomberg Economics.
On the positive side for the US, the agreement could help loosen Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The key waterway for oil and gas flows from the Persian Gulf was open before the war and is meant to open gradually, though there’s been disagreements about whether and how it would be managed. It would also set up talks to deal with Tehran’s nuclear program.
