Shipowners are watching warily for a peace deal between the US and Iran and what it would mean for the Strait of Hormuz, with some tanker owners expressing caution, while others were already predicting a frantic free-for-all if the waterway opens in earnest.
There are about 127 oil tankers currently inside the Persian Gulf, according to Signal Maritime data — although it warns the figure is hard to be confident of. Dozens of others have positioned themselves near the strait, to be ready to take advantage of a surge in demand if traffic resumes.
The global energy market was pitched into turmoil when the start of the war led to the effective closure of the waterway, which usually handles about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.
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While that move threatened a major energy price shock, trade flows have since reorientated, governments have taken emergency measures, and a growing stream of oil is now sneaking out of the waterway under cover of darkness. Those shifts mean that while the reopening of Hormuz will still be significant, prices have already heavily retreated from their highs.
