Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) forecasts foreign purchases of condo units will decline by 20% this year, marking the first annual contraction since the pandemic.
Data from the Real Estate Information Center (REIC) revealed foreign condo transfers nationwide fell by 17% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, and K-Research expects the decline to deepen to 20% for the full year, marking the first annual contraction in five years since the pandemic erupted.
For the remainder of this year, the foreign condo market is expected to remain subdued amid mounting headwinds. In particular, purchasing power in key foreign markets such as China and Myanmar is likely to continue weakening.
The prolonged conflict in the Middle East coupled with a slowdown in the global economy is expected to dampen sentiment and purchasing decisions among foreign buyers, noted K-Research.
According to the REIC, foreign condo transfers nationwide totalled 3,214 units in the first quarter of 2026, down 17% year-on-year. Transfers in Bangkok and surrounding areas fell sharply by 35% to 1,239 units.
"The slowdown was largely driven by weaker demand from buyers from China and Myanmar, who together accounted for around 60% of total transfers in Bangkok and its vicinity," said the research house.
In provincial markets, foreign condo transfers declined by only 1%. While transfers in Chon Buri slowed, activity in Phuket continued to record solid growth, supported by newly completed condominium projects.
Demand in provincial markets was driven largely by European buyers, particularly those from Russia, France, Germany and the UK, who tend to purchase residential properties in tourist destinations, according to K-Research.
The total value of foreign condo purchases also declined, reflecting both lower transaction volumes and a decrease in the average purchase price per unit.
In the first quarter, the value of foreign condo transfers nationwide tallied 13 billion baht, down 18% year-on-year.
The average transaction value per unit was 4.15 million baht, a decline of 0.7%.
Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), the bank's research unit, forecasts residential property transfers will contract for a fourth consecutive year in 2026, with the total value nationwide dipping by 5% year-on-year to 824 billion baht.
The contraction is attributed to high household debt levels, living costs rising faster than incomes, and persistently tight lending standards maintained by financial institutions following last year's credit tightening.
"The conflict in the Middle East is likely to further undermine purchasing power, making a recovery in housing demand more difficult," said the EIC.
"If the conflict becomes prolonged, the value of residential property transfers could face downside risks and contract by as much as 10-15% this year."
