July WTI crude oil (CLN26) on Tuesday closed down -3.10 (-3.40%), and July RBOB gasoline (RBN26) closed down -0.0495 (-1.61%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices fell sharply on Tuesday, with crude posting a 7-week low and gasoline posting an 8-week low. Crude prices retreated on Tuesday as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, which improves the prospects for a deal to end the US-Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Also, weakness in Chinese crude oil demand is undercutting oil prices.
Crude oil prices slumped on Tuesday after Iran and Israel agreed to end hostilities toward each other. President Trump today predicted a swift end to war with Iran and a subsequent fall in oil prices and said, “We’re in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal, and that they could have at least an idea one or two days from now” about the deal.
Weakness in Chinese demand is bearish for crude oil prices. China’s May crude imports fell to about 7.8 million bpd, the lowest in more than eight years. China is the world’s largest crude importer.
However, crude prices recovered from their worst level on Tuesday after President Trump blamed Iran for shooting down a US military helicopter and said the US would respond, reigniting fears that the US-Iran peace plan is in peril and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, further tightening global oil supplies.
The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on Tuesday raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.72 million bpd from a May estimate of 13.65 million bpd.
Crude prices have support from the continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Last Monday, Bloomberg reported that Russia banned jet fuel exports after Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries reached a record high in May. Russia’s refinery runs in May fell -13% y/y to 4.58 million bpd, the lowest since October 2009, according to data from Bloomberg. US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have also curbed Russian oil exports.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a monthly report released in May that global oil inventories declined at about 4 million bpd in March and April, and that the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October, even if the conflict ends soon. Goldman Sachs estimates that crude output in the Persian Gulf has been curtailed by about 14.5 million bpd, and that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, which could hit a billion bbl by June.
As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September. The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On May 3, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in June after raising production by 206,000 bpd in May, although any production hike now seems unlikely given that Middle East producers are being forced to cut production due to the Middle East war. OPEC’s May crude production fell by -3.36 million bpd to a 40-year low of 16.33 million bpd.
Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +1.2% w/w to 86.59 million bbl in the week ended June 5.
The consensus is that Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories fell by -2.2 million bbl, and gasoline supplies rose by +1.0 million bbl.
Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of May 29 were -3.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -4.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.4% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending May 29 fell -0.1% w/w to 13.707 million bpd, mildly below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended June 5 rose by +2 to an 11-month high of 431 rigs, well above the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in the week ended December 19. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
