Cocoa prices have plunged from last year's record highs — but shoppers are still paying more for Easter chocolate, Wells Fargo says.
Why it matters: Once food companies raise prices, they're slow to bring them back down when ingredient costs fall — even as consumers are expected to spend a record $24.9 billion on Easter this year, according to the National Retail Federation.
State of play: Major chocolate companies raised prices by up to 20% during the cocoa spike in 2024-2025, per a Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute report.
- For Easter, prices are up again — with chocolate costing shoppers about 14% more year over year in early 2026, according to Datasembly data.
- Over the past five years, the cost of a full Easter basket has jumped 71%, with roughly three-quarters of that increase driven by candy, according to a CouponFollow analysis.
Cocoa prices — an upstream input for retail chocolate — have dropped from over $12,000 per metric ton in late 2024 to about $3,000 to $3,300 today.
- But there are a number of reasons why chocolate prices haven't followed.
Between the lines: Most Easter candy was made months ago, when cocoa was still far more expensive.
- Chocolate makers are also still working through higher-cost cocoa they locked in earlier — and protecting margins after the recent price shock.
- Executives at companies like Hershey and Mondelez say they remain hedged above current cocoa prices, limiting how quickly they can pass along savings.
Zoom in: Wells Fargo's David Branch describes current pricing as a "reset," with structurally higher costs and sourcing risks keeping pressure on prices.
- "What we're seeing in the U.S., including higher prices, smaller sizes and less cocoa in some products, reflects longer-term adjustments," Jonathan Horn, CEO of Treefera, tells Axios.
- He added prices are "likely to stay high through 2026 and could climb further if supply expectations don't hold."
What we're watching: Relief is expected — just not yet.
- Supply is improving, with a modest global surplus expected this year.
- Branch said consumers may start to see lower chocolate prices later this year, "hopefully in time for Halloween."
The bottom line: Cocoa prices have cooled. Chocolate prices haven't — and consumers are still buying, with more than a quarter of adults purchasing Easter candy for themselves, according to a Ferrero survey.
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