The Padres are humming along quite nicely and remain 1 1/2 games out of first place in the National League West despite falling victim to Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers on Wednesday night. They've also managed to win 29 of their first 49 games despite having a run differential of +3, which can be seen as a positive or a negative. On one hand they are eking out victories ahead of what should be expected. On the other, they aren't exactly distancing themselves from their competition with much regularity.
Currently 23rd in Major League Baseball with 4.08 runs per game, the Padres' offense is yet to get fully on track. Considering the fact that we are gaining on a third of the season being in the books, this presents a not insignificant sample size. And when you start looking at the stats, one thing really jumps out.
Fernando Tatis Jr., a four-time All Star who has finished in the top-10 of MVP voting three times in his first six MLB seasons, is still searching for his first home run.
It's a dry spell that covers 206 plate appearances. During that time he's collected only five doubles and a triple, resulting in a slash line (.239/.312/.278) far below his usual production.
Tatis is coming off a 25-homer season in 2025. In ’24 he hit 21 in only 102 games. Three years ago he also launched 25. He didn't play in '22 due to injuries and a PED suspension, but the year before that, he led the National League with 42 home runs. It's an extremely perplexing turn for one of the game's brightest young stars.
It's not as though he's striking out with any type of meaningful increase in regularity. Tatis's 49 strikeouts in 40 games is not dissimilar to previous great years when he's fanned around or even more than one time per contest.
A cruise through Baseball Savant sort of complicates the picture of what's going on. Tatis is in the 97th percentile when it comes to hard hit percentage and the 86th in both bat speed and exit velocity. His barrel percentage is in the 71st percentile and his xBA the 72nd (.267, 28 points higher than his actual). On the negative side of things he comes in the 42nd percentile in chase rate and 46th in squared up percentage. Perhaps most crucially, his whiff rate of 31.8% puts him all the way down in the 16th percentile.
So he's swinging and missing a lot. Yet when he makes contact he's putting some sting behind it. To be at this point and still with a goose egg in the home run department—considering his track record—is borderline baffling. Of course, once people began to notice this anamoly, it's natural to have some pressing take place, which can hamper the process.
The silver lining for San Diego and for Tatis is that they've weathered this storm. They're still right in striking distance for a divisional crown and in current possession of a wild-card spot. There's no way the drought can continue for much longer. Right?
