TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, expects the global semiconductor market to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2030, topping its previous forecast of $1 trillion, according to its presentation materials ahead of a tech symposium on Thursday.
AI and high-performance computing are expected to account for 55% of the $1.5 trillion market, followed by smartphones with 20%, and automotive applications with 10%, according to TSMC.
TSMC said it has been expanding capacity at a faster pace in 2025 and 2026 and plans to build nine phases of wafer fabs and advanced packaging facilities in 2026.
The chipmaker is projected to ramp up capacity for its most advanced 2-nanometer and next generation A16 chips, with a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70% from 2026 to 2028.
TSMC said CAGR of capacity for its advanced packaging CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) is forecast at more than 80% from 2022 to 2027. CoWoS is a key chip packaging technology widely used in AI chips including those designed by Nvidia.
The company said AI accelerator wafer demand is projected to increase 11-fold from 2022 to 2026.
TSMC's global footprint
Arizona: The first fab is already in production. Tool move-in for the second fab is planned for the second half of 2026. Construction of a third fab is underway. Work on a fourth fab and the site's first advanced packaging facility is expected to begin this year.
TSMC anticipates a 1.8-fold year-on-year increase in Arizona output by 2026, with yields comparable to those in Taiwan.
The chipmaker said it completed the purchase of a second large parcel of land in Arizona for future expansion.
Japan: The first fab is currently in volume production for 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer products. Plans for the second fab have been upgraded to 3-nanometer in response to strong demand.
Germany: The fab is currently under construction and progressing as scheduled. It plans to provide 28-nanometer and 22-nanometer technologies, followed by 16-nanometer and 12-nanometer technologies.
