President Donald Trump is hitting historic lows in polling, most recently driven by the Iran war and high gas prices.
Analyst and statistician Nate Silver, who operates the Silver Bulletin, reported that Trump's approval rating and popularity has hit historic lows. The bulletin compiles and analyzes polls from numerous sources to look for overall trends in data.
Silver reported that, for the first time, Trump's approval rating had dropped past 40 percent.
Trump's approval rating just fell below 40 percent in our tracking for the first time. And his net approval rating is now -17.4, also a new low and down about 5 points over the past several weeks. pic.twitter.com/RFncMOefXZ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 30, 2026
According to Silver, Trump is starting to lose some of his base.
"Obviously, gas prices are a big factor. But Trump has profound problems. There *are* signs of erosion among his base. Only 22% of Americans have a *strongly* favorable view of Trump. 2028 aspirants are starting to pull away from him. One wonders about the effect of his age, too," Silver wrote on X.
Trump launched the attacks on Iran on February 28 without seeking congressional authorization for the conflict. Under the U.S. Constitution, only Congress can take the nation to war, and in the past, such as with Iraq in 2003, presidents have gone to Congress before initiating hostilities. However, the administration disputes the claim that the conflict amounts to a war.
Gas prices have risen about $1 per gallon in the last month, according to AAA. Gas prices do tend to rise in the spring, but the war is adding to that seasonal rise. Compared to the same time last year, gas is about 80 cents higher.
