- Smartphone shipments could drop by 13.9% this year
- That would bring them to the lowest levels since 2013
- The fall is largely thanks to rising memory prices
2026 looks set to be a bad year for the smartphone industry, as it’s predicted that shipments will fall 13.9% year-on-year. That would mean 1.08 billion units shipped, which is the lowest annual volume since 2013.
That’s a huge drop and a massive change in direction for the industry, which, prior to 2026, had seen nine consecutive quarters of growth.
This 13.9% drop prediction comes from Counterpoint, which is revising its previous forecast of a 12.4% drop. So, in other words, things are getting even worse than previously predicted.
This downward trend is largely driven by the ongoing memory supply crisis, with AI gobbling up much of the available RAM, leading to steep price rises. As a result, Counterpoint predicts that “the sub-$150 segment faces an effective permanent removal in some markets.”
With cheap phones disappearing, brands that focus on low-end devices and emerging markets will particularly struggle, which is part of why Samsung and Apple are reportedly the “most insulated” brands — that and the fact that they have integrated supply chains.
Smaller drops and even some increases
As a result, iPhone shipments are expected to remain broadly flat this year, according to Counterpoint, and to grow by 5% next year. Samsung, meanwhile, could see a 4% drop this year, which is far less than the industry as a whole.
The only other brand that Counterpoint highlights as being in good shape is Huawei, which actually managed to grow 1% in the first quarter of the year. This was apparently achieved by it keeping its prices static in order to grow its market share.
Conversely, Xiaomi’s shipments dropped more than any of the other top five phone brands in quarter one, with a 19% drop.
The big winner of all this, though, looks to be the refurbished market, which is predicted to grow by 13% this year, as new phones become too expensive for many buyers.
Counterpoint predicts that the market won’t rebound until 2028, but the landscape could be very different by then if some brands fail to weather the storm.
