Cost-of-living pressures could force households to switch to mince and sausages instead of rib-eye steaks and sirloin, Australian beef producers have been warned.
Australian cattle farmers are well positioned to benefit from tightening global supply and firm international demand, says a new report from Rabobank, an agribusiness banking specialist.
But they could face consumers buying cheaper-priced meat cuts if the Middle East war continues.
The conflict was increasing cost pressures across Australia's beef supply chain, with flow‐on impacts for producers and consumers, RaboResearch senior analyst Angus Gidley-Baird told AAP.
"In a market where beef prices are already elevated, any softening in demand could place margin pressure across the supply chain, limiting the ability to pass on further cost increases."
Consumers on tightened budgets could shift their spending behaviour to lower‐priced beef cuts over premium products, affecting the overall value of the beef carcase, Mr Gidley-Baird said.
"They'll still have a beef meal but it might be mince and sausages as opposed to rib-eye streaks and sirloins."
The challenge for beef producers would be if they were losing sales on the higher-priced items could they make up for it by marginally increasing prices of lower-priced items, Mr Gidley-Baird said.
"Someone in that supply chain wears a haircut on the margin."
The Rabobank report said global beef production was expected to fall by 2.2 per cent this year, with contractions in Brazil, the US and China, while cattle prices rose in the first quarter of 2026.
"Australia is expected to continue delivering historically-high beef production and export volumes, reinforcing its role as a key supplier into undersupplied global markets," Mr Gidley-Baird said.
"Australia is well placed to capture demand where supply from competitors becomes tighter or less consistent."
The report noted the recent provisional implementation of the EU-Mercosur agreement with South American countries, a new Australia-EU trade outcome and renewed export licences for US beef plants into China.
Australia reached 90 per cent of its Chinese beef quota on June 2 with the full quota likely to be hit in coming weeks.
Some disruption was expected as exporters pivoted to other markets but ongoing strong prices and high slaughter volumes indicated a confidence in the market that any disruptions would be minor, Mr Gidley-Baird said.
