BSE will announce the semi-annual Sensex reshuffle on Friday, and brokerage firm Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research expects Trent to be dropped from the 30-share benchmark, with either Hindalco Industries or Shriram Finance likely to replace it.
Trent seen exiting Sensex
Nuvama expects Trent to be excluded from the BSE Sensex in the June 2026 review after a slide in its free-float market capitalisation relative to other index constituents. The change, based on the brokerage’s reading of the Sensex methodology and latest market-cap data, would be effective with the June 19 index adjustment following a May 22 announcement.
“The exclusion could result in passive outflows of approximately USD 257 million,” the brokerage estimated, pointing to likely selling pressure from index funds and ETFs that mirror the Sensex. According to the note, Trent’s recent underperformance has eroded its free-float market cap ranking, pushing it below key eligibility thresholds within the BSE universe.
Hindalco vs Shriram Finance for entry
On the inclusion side, Nuvama has flagged Hindalco Industries and Shriram Finance as the two “key contenders” to replace Trent in the Sensex basket. While Shriram Finance currently ranks ahead on free-float market capitalisation, the brokerage believes Hindalco may enjoy a higher probability of inclusion.
“We believe Hindalco Industries may have a relatively higher probability of inclusion, supported by the index committee’s preference for broader sectoral representation within the BSE universe,” the report said, adding that the final call rests with the Sensex Index Committee. Nuvama also highlighted that “despite the methodology framework, there appears to be a degree of subjectivity in the final selection of the potential inclusion candidate.”
Timeline for Sensex rejig
The Sensex review is based on market capitalisation data as of April 30, 2026, which Nuvama notes has already passed, giving index managers a complete performance window ahead of the announcement. The brokerage expects BSE to announce the June 2026 rejig on May 22, with the actual index adjustment and trading implementation slated for June 19.
Nuvama’s projections are closely watched by institutional investors and passive fund managers, who track potential index changes to anticipate flows and trading opportunities around rebalancing dates. However, the brokerage has underlined that the outcome “remains subject to the discretion of the BSE index committee,” and that its Sensex reshuffle grid should still be treated as a prediction rather than a confirmed change.
