More than three months after failing to secure the top position in a national election marred by allegations of irregularities, the People's Party (PP) is striving to regain momentum despite a number of unfavourable factors.
As the party that swept all seats in Bangkok in the Feb 8 election, it could arguably afford to take a more relaxed approach to the upcoming Bangkok gubernatorial election on June 28.
However, the opposite appears true, given that its main rival is none other than Chadchart Sittipunt, who remains a popular choice among Bangkok voters.
Moreover, its role as leader of the opposition bloc presents significant challenges. The Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), which commands the largest bloc in the House of Representatives, continues to grow in influence.
The party is widely perceived to enjoy support from the traditional power structures. It is also believed to have strong ties with the Senate and key independent agencies, including the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC).
While such accusations remain contentious, developments such as investigations into BJT executives over the Senate election and the NACC's decision to clear former transport minister Saksayam Chidchob of asset concealment allegations -- despite a Supreme Court ruling against him -- have raised questions among critics.
While BJT continues to attract criticism, the progressive movement that won the 2019 election in a landslide has its own internal challenges, including questions about its identity and future direction.
Having won elections but never entered Government House, the party faces a strategic dilemma: should it continue to champion its bold, reformist ideology and challenge what it sees as conservative power structures, or adopt a more pragmatic approach that emphasises compromise and cooperation to broaden its appeal among moderate voters?
For now, the former approach appears to have prevailed. The party recently criticised the Anutin government for involving Privy Council members in national water management efforts, describing the move as inappropriate interference.
The PP has once again demonstrated its willingness to confront established institutions. However, it continues to face repercussions from its push to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code, the lese-majeste law, in what has become known as the "44 MFP case".
Key party figures who supported the amendment proposal, including PP leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, Sirikanya Tansakul and Rangsiman Rome, face the possibility of lifetime political bans.
Yet the most pressing issue for the party is constitutional reform. The PP remains deeply committed to rewriting the charter in an effort to reshape the country's political structure and replace mechanisms established under the military-backed constitution.
Initial optimism followed the referendum in which 21 million voters endorsed constitutional reform. However, the debate has intensified since BJT entered the process, with critics questioning whether the party genuinely supports structural change or seeks to preserve the status quo.
Concerns centre on BJT's proposal to amend Section 256 of the constitution to pave the way for establishing a 100-member Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA).
Critics argue that the proposed selection process, which relies on provincial representation and parliamentary quotas, could allow undue influence by powerful political interests.
Under the proposal, the CDA would comprise 77 provincial representatives and 23 experts selected through parliamentary mechanisms. Of the latter, 71 would be nominated by the House of Representatives and 29 by the Senate.
On paper, the quota system appears balanced. However, critics warn that political manoeuvring could distort the process.
BJT currently commands a strong position in parliament and is widely believed to enjoy support from a significant number of senators. As a result, opponents fear the party could exert substantial influence over the CDA, shaping both its composition and eventual outcomes.
Another contentious element is the proposal for 300 reserve CDA members. Unlike conventional reserve members, who serve only as replacements, 15 reserve members would join 30 regular CDA members in drafting the new constitution.
The assembly would have 360 days to complete the first draft before it proceeds through further parliamentary and referendum processes.
Critics argue that if BJT succeeds in shaping the process to its advantage, the resulting charter may fail to gain public acceptance.
In that scenario, pro-democracy groups could campaign against the draft, forcing the reform effort back to square one and prolonging constitutional uncertainty.
Such an outcome would leave the military-backed 2017 constitution intact.
For BJT, critics argue, this may not be a significant concern, as the party has already benefited from the current constitutional framework. As a result, Thailand's political system risks remaining trapped in a cycle of stagnation.
Political developments in recent years have also fuelled concerns that BJT has transformed traditional "baan yai" politics into a more sophisticated model based on networks of influence, institutional connections and control over state mechanisms.
The road ahead will be challenging for the People's Party. Its ambition to drive political reform through constitutional change and social media mobilisation may not be enough.
The party will need to expand its support base at every level while maintaining its stance against entrenched political interests.
To succeed, it must continue presenting itself as a credible alternative for voters seeking a more liberal and reform-oriented political future.
Chairith Yonpiam is an assistant news editor at the Bangkok Post.
