Offshore wind projects could potentially cover 11% of the North Sea by 2050, new research has claimed.
A study led by Heriot-Watt University has mapped a scenario for how offshore wind could reshape the North Sea by 2050.
The analysis found that if all current political commitments to offshore wind were built, around 11% of the basin would fall within wind farm boundaries.
This would be a projected rise from about 1% of the basin currently to about 11% by 2050.
The researchers said this is a projection rather than a prediction of where wind farms will be located in 2050.
Dr Simon Waldman, assistant professor of energy technologies at Heriot-Watt University’s school of energy, geoscience, infrastructure and society, said: “Our scenario shows the scale that we would be looking at if every country were to build the amount of offshore wind capacity that they have promised.
“It’s important to be clear that this isn’t a prediction of what the North Sea will look like in 2050, it’s simply a projection based on the data and national ambitions we have today.”
Analysis shows that current political commitments imply a total of around 19,400 offshore wind turbines across the North Sea by 2050, including those already built.
The study examined both operational offshore wind farms and projects already in national development pipelines across all seven countries with North Sea waters: the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the UK, Norway and France.
Where necessary, hypothetical wind farms were added to bring each country’s total capacity in line with its stated commitments.
Dr Waldman said the research was originally started to understand environmental impacts of large rollouts of offshore wind.
He continued: “We originally began this work because we wanted to understand the environmental effects of a very large rollout of offshore wind. To do that properly, we needed a plausible set of turbine locations and that simply didn’t exist at the time.
“Since the project began, national ambitions have grown in response to global events, so we updated the dataset to reflect the higher targets governments now have.”
By 2030 the UK is projected to remain the largest offshore wind nation in the North Sea, with roughly 4,200 turbines in operation.
Germany follows with around 2,700 turbines and the Netherlands with approximately 1,700.
By 2050, these three countries are expected to increase in scale, with the UK estimated to host around 6,300 turbines, Germany in the region of 4,300 and the Netherlands just over 4,200.
The Netherlands is projected to be the most intensively used national zone, with offshore wind farms occupying around 19% of its North Sea waters by 2050.
Belgium follows with projections of around 18%, ahead of Denmark at about 15% and Germany at around 14%. The UK follows at around 9%, Norway at around 8% and France at around 7%.
Taken together, projected and operational offshore wind developments would cover approximately 58,500 square kilometres of the North Sea, rising from around 1% of the basin today to about 11% by 2050.
Dr Waldman added: “To build this scenario, we brought together a wide range of international marine and energy datasets, from national targets and spatial plans to seabed depths, wind and wave records, existing infrastructure and projected turbine technologies, to create a realistic picture of what current ambitions might mean in practice.
“When placing our projected future wind farms, we tried to avoid shipping lanes, environmentally-protected areas, existing seabed cables and pipelines, and more.
“What this shows is the scale of activity we will be dealing with if offshore wind grows as promised, and the practical considerations that come with that.”
