The favorites are the usual suspects, with the Rams, Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens and 49ers all among the betting darlings to not only reach Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium but to win it all come Valentine’s Day.
But who are the teams nobody sees coming? Last season, the Seahawks and Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl, and neither made the playoffs the year before. In fact, New England was coming off a four-win season, while Seattle had traded away quarterback Geno Smith and star receiver DK Metcalf before reshuffling the roster.
So, who are the aforementioned teams waiting to surprise? We looked at each conference and came up with three, starting with the longer shots. The only ground rule to be included as a sleeper is being outside the top 10 of Super Bowl odds going into training camp. Other than that, it’s fair game.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers make the list because they have a top-10 coach/quarterback combo in Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love.
Green Bay also has experience. The Packers have reached the playoffs in each of the past three seasons and six of the past seven. While the NFC North projects to be one of the league’s strongest divisions as all four clubs are coming off winning records, the Packers are in that mix, provided tight end Tucker Kraft and edge rusher Micah Parsons can both recover fully from torn ACLs.
The big key is Love’s ascension alongside his skill-position talent. Since becoming a starter in 2023, Love hasn’t had a 1,000-yard receiver. Green Bay hoped to remedy that issue by drafting Matthew Golden in the first round last year. As a rookie, though, Golden posted 29 catches for 361 yards and no touchdowns. Golden must step up, while Jayden Reed and Christian Watson simply need to stay healthy. Last year, the pair missed 17 combined games.
Finally, Love was an analytics darling in 2025, finishing third in EPA (+95.6) and second in EPA per dropback (+0.20), but his overall totals were merely solid with 3,381 passing yards and 23 touchdowns. If Love and his receivers level up, the Packers are dangerous.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Speaking of quarterbacks (and Green Bay), the Steelers’ ceiling is completely predicated on whether Aaron Rodgers can turn back time for a few months.
Rodgers is 42 and hasn’t played at an elite level since winning consecutive MVPs in 2020 and ’21. While hoping he gets back to that form is unreasonable, approaching it might not be impossible. With former Packers coach Mike McCarthy joining him in Pittsburgh, and the acquisition of wideout Michael Pittman Jr. to pair with DK Metcalf, there are reasons to believe Rodgers can be better.
If Rodgers is going to rebound from a middling 2025 showing of 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns, it starts with challenging himself and defenses. Last season, he was dead last in air yards per completion (3.7). Additionally, while he attempted the fifth-most passes of 10 air yards or fewer, he ranked 14th in EPA on those plays at +7.4. As for passes of 10-19 air yards, Rodgers was 25th with 76 attempts, seven fewer than Michael Penix Jr., who played in nine games.
General manager Omar Khan improved the roster with the signings of corner Jamel Dean, safety Jaquon Brisker and running back Kenneth Gainwell, along with the Pittman trade. Now it’s on Rodgers.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are fascinating. They haven’t been to the NFC title game since the 1996 season. They’ve ripped through coaches, quarterbacks and one big swing after the next without finding ultimate success. And yet, this team has some pieces that could make it a force in the NFC.
Dallas finished 8–9 last year in coach Brian Schottenheimer’s first season, primarily held back by its 30th-ranked defense. With new coordinator Christian Parker taking over a unit that traded for edge rusher Rashan Gary and his 7.5 sacks from 2025, Cowboys fans should be hopeful. The big question is whether the five rookies can make a major, immediate impact, led by first-rounders Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence.
If they can, the offense is Super Bowl–caliber. Dak Prescott was second in 2023 MVP voting and looked excellent again last year, throwing for 4,552 yards on 7.6 yards per attempt with 30 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He’s surrounded by a pair of All-Pro receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, who combined for 2,506 yards and 12 touchdowns. Then there’s tight end Jake Ferguson, who notched 600 yards and eight scores, the latter ranking third at his position.
In a division that’s wide open, featuring the Eagles as slight +140 favorites with Dallas at +200, the Cowboys are a few improvements away from a home game or two in January.
Houston Texans
The Texans are following the Seahawks’ blueprint for a title.
Last season, Seattle ran through the NFC and earned home-field advantage before winning it all by having the NFL’s sixth-ranked defense while allowing the fewest points and second-fewest yards per play (4.6). Houston had a similar unit, permitting the fewest yards and second-fewest points, helping the Texans reach the divisional round for the third consecutive year.
The Seahawks’ offense was led by a league-average quarterback in Sam Darnold, one great receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a rushing attack paced by 1,000-yard back Kenneth Walker III. Houston has the pieces to match that trio with C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins and the newly acquired David Montgomery. While it’s unlikely Collins will lead the league in yardage as Smith-Njigba did with 1,793, it’s also reasonable to think Stroud could eclipse Darnold’s 4,048 yards and 25 touchdown passes.
With a defense that can argue it has both the best pass-rushing duo in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter (27 combined sacks in 2025), and the best secondary led by Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, a Super Bowl jaunt isn’t an impossible dream.
Cincinnati Bengals
When Joe Burrow is on the field, the Bengals are lethal. In 2022 and ’23, Burrow played 32 of a possible 34 games. In those years, Cincinnati reached the AFC title game twice, including a Super Bowl appearance.
Since, Burrow has played in only 35 of 51 games, and the Bengals haven’t made it to the postseason. Burrow will turn 30 in December, and a significant part of Burrow’s career should be ahead of him. One ring, and he’s a likely Hall of Famer, two things other great Bengals quarterbacks, Ken Anderson and Boomer Esiason, never achieved. But for Burrow to reach those benchmarks, he needs to play, and so does his defense.
After finishing 25th in points and yards allowed in 2024, Cincinnati fired longtime coordinator Lou Anarumo and replaced him with Al Golden, who came over from Notre Dame. His first season went poorly, as the Bengals were 31st defensively (30th in scoring) and allowed 31-plus points in seven games.
This offseason, general manager Duke Tobin made sweeping changes. Although former All-Pro defensive end Trey Hendrickson left in free agency, Tobin sent a first-round pick to the Giants for nose tackle Dexter Lawrence II. Lawrence had just eight quarterback hits and a half sack in 2025, but in the three prior seasons, Lawrence made the Pro Bowl each time while totaling 65 quarterback hits and 21 sacks. Tobin also signed Cincinnati native and safety Bryan Cook, along with edge rusher Boye Mafe and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen.
If the defense can gel with its infusion of talent and Burrow can maintain an upright posture, the Bengals are a threat to win the AFC North and more.
Chicago Bears
How are the Bears sitting at 25-to-1 odds after last season?
In his first season, coach Ben Johnson won 11 games and led Chicago to its first NFC North title since 2018, when Mitchell Trubisky was under center. Much of the team’s resurgence can be credited to the combo of Johnson and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams, who threw for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns. He was also electrifying in the postseason, navigating an 18-point comeback in the wild-card round over the Packers before going toe-to-toe with the Rams in an overtime defeat.
Also, the revamped offensive line deserves credit. Last winter, the Bears brought in guards Jonah Jackson and All-Pro Joe Thuney, along with center Drew Dalman. Dalman earned Pro Bowl honors but shockingly retired this offseason, leaving his void to be filled by rookie second-round pick Logan Jones and/or veteran Garrett Bradbury. Behind the new interior, Williams’s sacks went from a league-high 68 as a rookie to 24 last season. If center isn’t a constant issue, the front remains a strength with second-team All-Pro Darnell Wright anchoring the right side.
If there’s a concern beyond center, it’s the defense. In 2025, Chicago ranked 29th in yards and 23rd in points allowed, while also finishing 25th in sacks (35) and quarterback hits (84). While the safeties were addressed with first-round pick Dillon Thieneman and the signing of former Seahawks star Coby Bryant, the rest of the defense is primarily the same, save for depth signings and the release of linebacker Tremaine Edmunds.
If something is going to sink Chicago’s dream of its first Super Bowl victory since the 1985 season, that’ll likely be it.
