Indian markets have had a rough ride lately — four days down, one day up. And according to Pashupati Advani, Founder of Global Foray, the turbulence is far from over.
Speaking to ET Now, Advani warned that a slowdown is coming, and investors need to pick their spots carefully.
The slowdown is real
Advani was direct: inflation is already here, and it is going to hurt. Rising fuel prices, supply disruptions from the ongoing conflict near the Hormuz Strait, and tightening household budgets are all converging at once.
"We are in for change," he said, adding that Prime Minister Modi's call for austerity was the first such signal from leadership in many years — and one that the market would do well to take seriously.
Adding to the pressure, foreign institutional investors have been aggressive sellers. FIIs have dumped roughly ₹20,000 crore worth of Indian equities in the last month alone, acting as a significant supply-side drag on the market.
What Advani is avoiding
Advani was notably cautious on IT, despite bullish views from others. Given that IT is a large component of the index, he believes it is weighing the broader market down. Oil producers face similar headwinds, and with both sectors forming a significant part of the index, a sharp rally looks difficult in the near term.
On consumption, he flagged a quiet but important shift: consumers are beginning to trade down to the unorganised sector as belts tighten. Rising summer electricity bills will only add to household stress in the months ahead.
Where he sees opportunity
Despite the caution, Advani pointed to a handful of clear themes worth watching:
Infrastructure & base metals
The government spending on roads and infrastructure continues regardless of broader economic sentiment. Steel, cement, and rare metals remain steady beneficiaries of this spend. Advani noted that while large conglomerates are still investing in infrastructure, second-tier private companies have pulled back sharply, which is itself a drag on growth.
Exporters
Any manufacturer with a strong export focus is, in his words, "the dream team" right now. With domestic demand softening, companies earning in foreign currency carry a meaningful edge.
Pharma
The sector faces a temporary logistical hiccup due to global shipping disruptions, but Advani expects it to bounce back once supply chains normalise. He also flagged the GLP-1 or semaglutide opportunity, the Indian equivalent of the Ozempic wave, as a durable, long-term growth theme across around 20 domestic pharmaceutical companies.
Defence
Advani likes the sector in principle but acknowledges it is hard to time. He specifically named BEML and Zen Technologies as stocks he has tracked closely, though he admitted to exiting both too early -a common challenge in this space.
Telecom wildcard
Advani mentioned Vodafone Idea as a stock showing signs of a structural breakout. With continued government support and the possibility of a strategic investor coming in, he believes a turnaround, while not guaranteed, is looking increasingly likely.
The bottom line: This is a market that rewards patience and punishes impulse. Advani's overall stance is cautious — he described himself as "a little bearish" — but not without conviction in select pockets.
Infrastructure plays, quality exporters, and pharma appear to be his anchors in an otherwise uncertain tape. For retail investors, the message is simple: stick to fundamentals, avoid the noise, and let the government's spending priorities guide your sector bets.
