US forces have launched multiple strikes on Kharg island, a small but key location in the ongoing war with Iran.
With just hours to go until Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to make a deal and end the month-long conflict, the United States military confirmed on Tuesday it had targeted Kharg.
Previously Trump has mused about seizing the island altogether, though this would require troops on the ground and has yet to transpire.
The strategically-important location handles some 90 per cent of Iran’s oil exports, and taking it would give the US the ability to disrupt Iran’s energy trade and place enormous pressure on the economy.
Below we look at the island and why it could prove pivotal to the war.
Kharg sits 16 miles from the coast in the northern end of the Gulf and just northwest of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important shipping route that Iran has effectively closed to pile pressure on the US.
While US forces could likely seize Kharg quite quickly, analysts say that an occupation is more likely to expand and prolong the war than it is to deliver a decisive victory or leverage in negotiations.
Iran has fortified the island with additional surface-to-air missiles and laid traps including anti-personnel and anti-armour mines in the waters surrounding it, CNN has reported, citing people familiar with US intelligence.
Taking Kharg could cut off Iran’s oil lifeline
US administration officials say discussions on seizing Kharg Island have taken place, according to Axios. The land, which is smaller than the City of Westminster in London, could choke off Iran’s economy and leave a devastating impact for years to come.
“Seizing the island would cut off Iran’s oil lifeline, which is crucial for the regime,” Petras Katinas, research fellow in climate, energy and defence in the Europe office of the Royal United Services Institute, told The Telegraph.
“Of course, with shipping via the Strait of Hormuz now stopped, they cannot sell oil anyway, but looking ahead, seizure would give the US leverage during negotiations, no matter which regime is in power after the military operation ends.”
Shipping through the Strait has largely come to a halt since the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) took “complete control” of the major waterway.
Global supply chains have been severely affected and experts have warned of a devastating economic impact across the world if it continues.
Oil prices surged to well over $100 a barrel since the war began, and the IRGC has warned that it could reach $200 if hostilities escalate.
“Should he take Kharg, rather than destroy it, he can not only ensure the regime can never again pay the salaries of its bureaucrats and soldiers,” former Pentagon official Michael Rubin wrote in an article for the American Enterprise Institute in January this year, before Trump’s assault.
“The IRGC, of course, could target Kharg with ballistic missiles, but that would sign their death warrant. Not only would Trump respond in kind, but such action would end Iranian oil exports for months to come, again leaving salaries unpaid.”
The US faces multiple challenges if it wants to seize the island
A former commander of the US Central Command, Joseph Votel, told TWZ.com that while only 800 to 1,000 troops would be needed on Kharg Island, they would require logistical backup that would need protection as well.
Votel said that US troops would be very vulnerable and doubted that taking the island would provide any particular tactical advantage. It would be "kind of an odd thing to do ... But we could certainly do it if we had to," he said.
Troops already navigating traps would also likely have to contend with an onslaught of missiles and drones. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has said.
“The enemy signals negotiation in public, while in secret it plots a ground attack,” he said in a message broadcast on Iranian state media last month.
Gulf allies have warned the administration not to put troops on the ground in Iran, saying it could trigger more retaliation from Tehran, possibly against their energy and civilian infrastructure, a senior Gulf official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
The President has previously boasted that US strikes in mid-March had “obliterated” Iranian military outposts on the island, but left its oil infrastructure alone for now.
Island could be used as bargaining chip in talks
Other analysts have suggested the island could be used as a bargaining chip as oil exports make up nearly 40 per cent of Iran’s government budget.
However, it would make American and Israeli troops vulnerable to attacks by Iranian forces.
“If President Trump were to decide to seize this pivotal hub, it would deal a significant blow to the Iranian regime, as it would deprive them of a critical source of revenue,” oil analyst Tamas Varga told CNBC.
“Such a move would be reminiscent of the US intervention in Venezuela at the beginning of the year, when it effectively took control of the country’s oil sector.”
The island was previously attacked by Saddam Hussein in 1984, sparking the oil tanker war in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Iraq.
But this isn’t the first time Kharg appears to have been in Trump’s sightline. He previously made a throwaway remark about the island nearly 40 years ago while promoting his book The Art of the Deal in an interview with The Guardian.
“They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look a bunch of fools,” he said of Iran in 1988. “One bullet shot at one of our men or ships, and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.”
Capturing island ‘would send markets into tailspin’
Neil Quilliam, an energy policy and foreign affairs analyst at Chatham House, told The Independent that while it is “unlikely” Trump would take over the territory, any attempt would “likely send the markets into a tailspin”. It could also block any future resolution between the countries, leading to an endless standoff.
“The US would effectively control Iran’s major export terminal, but the Iranian leadership would remain in control of the country’s production so there would be a standoff,” he said. It could also be a “major cause for concern” for Gulf countries, setting a dangerous precedent.
“It is Iran’s Achilles heel in this war, but fighting for and occupying Kharg could cause irreparable damage to the terminal and hurt any successor regime’s chances of managing the economy,” he continued.
“Previous presidents have steered away from Kharg, understanding its strategic importance to global oil markets.”
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