The direction of interest rates is notoriously hard to predict, but J.P. Morgan is on record as anticipating zero rate hikes in 2026. The bank sees a resilient economy and persistent inflation as likely to keep the Fed neutral for the duration of the year.
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Here’s a look at who could be the winners and losers in the 2026 economy if that prediction holds true.
Also see what a rate increase would mean for savings accounts.
The Biggest Winners From High Rates
Interest rates have been slowly trickling down but remain elevated. For many savers, this translates to a boost in income without taking on additional risk.
Here are the types of households that could benefit the most from high rates in 2026.
- Investors in high-yield savings accounts and certificates of deposit: Many of these types of FDIC-insured accounts still pay annual percentage yields (APYs) of up to 5%, according to Fortune. With a $100,000 balance, that translates to $5,000 in annual income, far above the near-zero rates during the pandemic.
- Retirees and near-retirees: Investors in their 50s and 60s tend to shift to a more conservative asset allocation, often involving a mix of U.S. Treasurys and FDIC-insured, short-term investments. Not only do these types of investments have low risk profiles, but they also pay 3.5% annually or more.
- Households with large cash reserves: Emergency funds are traditionally considered “dead money,” earning little to no return. But now, a $50,000 cash reserve earning a 4.5% APY generates about $2,250 per year. That can go a long way toward countering inflation.
Dollar impact: Anyone earning interest instead of paying it can earn thousands of dollars more per year in interest income without having to change anything in their portfolios.
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The Biggest Losers From High Rates
In the investing world, when there are winners, there are also losers.
Here’s who might suffer the most from persistently high interest rates.
- New homebuyers and those with adjustable-rate mortgages: On a $400,000 loan, a 3% mortgage, which was easily obtainable during the COVID-19 pandemic, meant a monthly payment of about $1,700. But at 7%, that same mortgage jumps to roughly $2,500. Those with existing adjustable-rate mortgages may even see their monthly payments increase when their mortgages reset.
- Credit card borrowers with balances: At a 15% interest rate, a $10,000 balance will generate $1,500 in interest expense every year if the balance isn’t paid down. But at a 27% interest rate, that same $10,000 debt triggers $2,700 in interest annually, or about $100 more every single month.
- Auto and personal loan borrowers: Financing a $40,000 vehicle at 7% instead of 3% can add several thousand dollars in total interest over the life of the loan.
- Small-business owners: Loans and credit lines will remain expensive, squeezing profit margins and limiting expansion for many small-business owners.
Dollar impact: Borrowers are at risk of paying hundreds to thousands of dollars more per month. Total interest costs will accrue more rapidly.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: J.P. Morgan Predicts No Rate Cuts in 2026: Winners, Losers and the Dollar Impact
