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With a market cap of $78.1 billion, Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is a leading aerospace and defense technology company that operates globally through four business segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems. It specializes in advanced aircraft, missile defense, cybersecurity, space technologies, autonomous systems, and military communication solutions for defense and government customers worldwide.
Shares of the defense contractor have lagged behind the broader market over the past 52 weeks. NOC stock has gained 16.8% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 23.1%. Moreover, shares of the company are down 3.5% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX’s 7.3% return.
Focusing more closely, shares of the Falls Church, Virginia-based company have slightly underperformed the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF’s (XLI) 16.9% increase over the past 52 weeks.
Despite reporting stronger-than-expected Q1 2026 revenue of $9.88 billion and EPS of $6.14, shares of Northrop Grumman slipped nearly 7% on Apr. 21. Northrop reaffirmed sales guidance of $43.5 billion - $44 billion, roughly in line with the consensus, but projected MTM-adjusted EPS of $27.40 - $27.90, below Wall Street’s estimate, while keeping free cash flow guidance at $3.1 billion - $3.5 billion.
For the fiscal year ending in December 2026, analysts expect NOC’s EPS to grow 6% year-over-year to $27.92. The company's earnings surprise history is promising. It topped the consensus estimates in the last four quarters.
Among the 23 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 12 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and 10 “Holds.”
On May 18, Citi analyst John Godyn cut the price target for Northrop Grumman to $628 while maintaining a “Buy” rating.
The mean price target of $725.81 represents a 31.9% premium to NOC’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $849 suggests a 54.3% potential upside.
