Thailand’s housing market showed signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2026, the Government Housing Bank said on Wednesday, with transaction volumes rising amid government stimulus even as gains in value lagged, underscoring weak purchasing power.
The outlook remains fragile, with rising energy costs linked to the Middle East war, soft domestic demand and a pullback in foreign buying expected to weigh on the sector through the rest of the year, the state-owned lender said.
The housing market is expected to decline slightly in 2026 due to energy costs and inflation, though declines will be limited by government stimulus, an extension of eased loan-to-value rules for mortgages for another year and fee cuts for certain transactions, the bank said.
Foreign condominium demand weakened sharply in the first quarter, with transfers down 17% year-on-year in both volume and value, though foreigners still accounted for a significant share of transactions.
Chinese buying declined steeply, by 43% in value, while Russian demand grew, with foreign activity concentrated in Bangkok, Chon Buri and Phuket, particularly in higher-end segments.
The GHB said it expected a mild contraction in 2026, with transfers to decline 1.1% in volume and 2.3% in value, and new mortgage lending projected to fall 1.6%.
Residential unit transfers rose 11.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, while value increased by a more modest 3.1%, highlighting a shift towards lower-priced homes.
Higher energy and construction costs, driven by geopolitical tensions, are weighing on household purchasing power, the bank said.
Thailand’s household debt was 16.44 trillion baht at the end of last year, or 86.7% of GDP, among Asia’s highest levels, dragging on consumption and growth.
Housing loans are starting to recover after a prolonged downturn, with new mortgage lending rising 11.1% year-on-year to about 122 billion baht in the first quarter.
