Election year pressure is intensifying as the Government defends deep public service cuts.
Nearly 9000 jobs are on the chopping block, and the political fallout has been quick and fierce.
Opposition parties warn that the scale of the move will impact and devastate thousands of families across the country, and shake confidence in the public sector.
But the Government insists the sweeping cuts are about trimming bureaucracy, saving taxpayer money – about $2.4 billion – refocusing spending and joining the AI revolution.
“Nicola Willis, by her own measure, didn’t achieve the public service cuts that she wanted to in 2024 – by her own metrics, that was probably a bit of a fail, so this time round she is having a second go, and she does believe that this is an election winner,” Newsroom Pro managing editor Jonathan Milne tells The Detail.
The announcement was made on Tuesday, and for many workers, the reality is now setting in.
Across Wellington, in particular, public servants are anxiously waiting to learn whether their roles will survive.
“I think we know first and foremost who is not targeted – doctors and nurses, teachers, police officers, and defence personnel are safe,” says Milne. “Pretty much everyone else is fair game, it looks like.
“There will be a lot of people … right across the core public sector that are running pretty scared right now.”
But the cuts, set to be done by next year, are a “selling point” for National in an election year, says Milne.
“This is not just a government announcement; this is a National Party campaign platform, and clearly, the campaign managers and Nicola Willis believe it’s a winner for them.”
But he points out that National’s coalition mate and Minister for Foreign Affairs Winston Peters isn’t quite on the same page.
Peters was quick to defend his ministry and make a telling remark to journalists after Willis’ announcement: “I know all of our embassies are going to be retained, everything is going to stay the same, and there’s the small matter of the election on the 7th of November, and the Budget next year. I’m not concerned about it.”
Milne says Peters suggested these job cuts might not even stick, if there’s a change in power after the election.
“Which is a pretty strong indication, if you ask me, that he wants voters to know he could go with Labour or National, that he is a centrist party, if he’s saying there’s a possibility that this entire core National Party policy could change at the election.”
But National is betting that voters, frustrated by government spending and the cost-of-living crisis, will back a tougher approach to the public sector.
Cutting “bureaucracy” is a message ministers believe resonates strongly with taxpayers struggling to make ends meet.
And now is the time to trim down a system that has become ‘bloated’ and unsustainable.
“Those in National and ACT’s hardcore support will be delighted,” Milne says.
“Those voters who value a bigger government and public services, they were already unhappy with the previous cuts, and they will be unhappy with these cuts.
“But I’m not sure this shifts the dial much for a lot of voters.”
Milne warns there could be more axe-swinging on the way, saying the Government will tell Crown companies to get on board with cost-cutting.
“[Willis] said that they will be communicating to the boards of all these big SOEs and Crown companies just what the Government’s values are, what their priorities are, suggesting in her words that they ‘get on the bus’.”
But he says Air NZ, and the three big “cash cow” power gentailers – Mercury, Genesis and Meridian – that paid $564 million in dividends last year, won’t be expected to lay off staff.
Either way, the fight over the public sector could shape up to be an important battle heading into the election.
But for nearly 9000 Kiwi workers caught in the middle of it, the debate is far more than political.
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