China's massive civil aviation fleet is ageing faster than planes are being replaced, threatening to saddle airlines with higher costs, but orders for home-grown C919 jets could help stem the tide, according to the head of north Asia for the International Air Transport Association (Iata).
Current aircraft replacements are failing to reach 2019 levels despite recent orders of Airbus and Boeing jets, Iata regional vice-president Xie Xingquan said at the industry group's annual general meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, responding to an audience question about any lift from those orders.
Since 2020, the number of aircraft over 20 years old has outpaced new deliveries, depressing replacement rates below the threshold needed for a "stable fleet age", Xie said in a YouTube webcast on Saturday during the Iata event. The fleet now "risks continued ageing" despite previously ranking among the world's youngest.
A maturing fleet augurs higher operating costs for airlines, Xie noted. Older planes require more stringent mechanical oversight, higher labour outlays and increased fuel consumption, among other setbacks, the Iata has found.
Maintenance of older aircraft is particularly capital-intensive due to the need for "durable parts", according to independent aviation analyst Li Hanming.
"This is actually counted as a depreciation of assets, but you still have to take cash flow out of your pocket," Li said.
China's 65 domestic airlines were operating a combined 4,574 commercial aircraft as of the end of 2025, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China.
Deliveries of the C919, China's first domestically produced single-aisle narrowbody aircraft, could help rejuvenate the domestic fleet, the Iata's Xie said.
With the fleet ageing, Xie explained that the C919 could be "another option for the airlines" looking to mitigate supply-chain issues. "Definitely it could inject new vitality into the aviation industry both for China and also for the rest of the world," he said.
China's plane maker, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac), delivered 35 C919s from December 2022 through the first quarter of this year, and major state-owned carriers have ordered roughly 300 of the jets.
Comac has positioned the C919, which took its maiden flight in 2023, as a potential rival to the similarly sized Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 aircraft families.
China Eastern Airlines said in May that it had placed a multibillion-dollar order for 101 Airbus A320neo aircraft, and US President Donald Trump said after visiting Beijing last month that China would buy at least 200 commercial planes from Boeing.
Boeing projects demand for 8,830 new commercial aircraft in China through 2043.
