Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley says a China-driven supply realignment and a powerful capex boom are cushioning Asia from energy price shocks, but India faces a distinct capital outflow problem that needs urgent fixes.
The supply shock that didn't shock
With roughly one-fifth of global crude and 30–40% of global gas supplies disrupted by the West Asia conflict, most analysts expected a severe energy price spike. That spike hasn't materialised, and according to Chetan Ahya, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley, two structural shifts explain why.
China has cut its gas imports by 45%, activating coal gasification and improving thermal power utilisation, and slashed oil imports by 30%. Simultaneously, US crude exports have surged. Together, the swing from these two giants has effectively added 7.5 million barrels per day to global supply availability, equivalent to 7.5% of total world consumption, providing a powerful natural buffer.
